Emerging markets seem to have won some respite from recent tailwinds, but base interest rate Selic remains at a record low of 6.5%.
According to the economists surveyed by Valor, even with the BRL’s steep devaluation, marked also by the uncertain electoral prospects, there is still no reason for Brazil’s Central Bank to follow its peers: all 45 economists interviewed expect that policy rate to be kept unchanged at the next Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting that takes place on September 19 and 20.
By year’s end, only six firms bet on a higher base interest rate, between 7% and 7.5%. For most, therefore, the normalization of monetary policy should begin next year, when the economy starts a more consistent rebound.
About Me
- Waldemar Jezler
- For over 30 years, Brazilian-American investment banker Waldemar Jezler has worked in the finance sector. Jezler earned his Bachelor's degree in Civil Engineering from the University of São Paulo in Brazil and then went on to attend Harvard Business School for his MBA. While at Harvard, Jezler was highly involved in extracurricular activities, including a term as President of the Ibero American Club.