Thursday, September 9, 2010

Brazilian Inflation Slows to Government Target For First Time This Year

Brazil’s consumer prices rose less than expected in August, falling under the mid-point of the government’s target for the first time this year, the national statistics agency said.
Inflation in Latin America’s biggest economy slowed to 0.04 percent in August from July, less than the 0.08 forecast by 37 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the national statistics agency said in a report distributed in Rio de Janeiro today. Annual inflation through August slowed to 4.49 percent, less than the 4.53 percent forecast in the survey.


The yields on interest rate future contracts declined. The yield on the contract due January 2012, the most traded on the Sao Paulo BM&F futures exchange, fell 6 basis points to 11.3 percent at 8:08 a.m. New York time. The real was little changed at 1.7234 per dollar.

Policy makers last week kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged after three consecutive increases, saying the Selic was at an “adequate” level to ensure inflation would slow to target. The central bank’s President Henrique Meirelles said Sept. 3 that he is “comfortable” with the pace of economic expansion that slowed less than expected in the second quarter on a record investment surge.

Brazil’s central bank targets 4.5 percent inflation, plus or minus two percentage points.
Traders expect policy makers to raise the rate to 12 percent by September 2011, according to Bloomberg estimates based on interest rate futures contracts.

Brazil’s gross domestic product grew 1.2 percent in the three months ending in June from the previous quarter, cooling from a 2.7 percent expansion in the first quarter. GDP jumped 8.8 percent from a year ago compared with a 9 percent expansion in the first quarter that was the fastest pace in 15 years.

Brazil’s growth will slow to a level consistent with long- term equilibrium, Meirelles said last week, adding that he’s “comfortable” with the current pace. GDP will increase by an average of 0.7 percent over the third and fourth quarters, Meirelles said.
Brazilian economists expect inflation to end this and next year above the government’s 4.5 percent target, according to a weekly central bank survey of about 100 analysts published this week. The IPCA index may rise 5.07 percent this year, slowing to 4.85 percent in 2011, the survey showed.
To contact the reporters on this story: Alexander Ragir in Rio de Janeiro at aragir@bloomberg.net; Iuri Dantas in Brasilia at idantas@bloomberg.net