Showing posts with label Public Finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Public Finance. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Refis - Brasília may open new installment program for corporate debt

Under pressure by businesspeople and parliamentarians to open a new installment program for the payment of companies’ debts to the federal government, Palácio do Planalto, the presidential seat, has sent a positive signal to Congress and should forward the measure within the set of initiatives under study for a faster recovery of economic growth and jobs, according to senior sources. Part of the government is sympathetic to the proposal since the measure would help take businesses out of the financial crisis and still boost revenues next year. The Planalto, however, is still studying whether the political climate is favorable to such measure. The government also faces strong resistance from the Secretariat of Federal Revenue, which believes the program encourages defaults and, in the long run, deteriorates the government's tax collection capacity.

valor.com.br

Friday, May 31, 2013

TCU aponta patrimônio líquido negativo da União

Pedro Ladeira/Folhapress / Pedro Ladeira/FolhapressJosé Jorge, relator das contas do governo: "Geralmente as mulheres fazem maquiagem e ficam mais bonitas. Mas no caso do superávit, a situação ficou pior"

O balanço geral da União de 2012 deixou de registrar o passivo atuarial do regime próprio de previdência dos servidores civis federais (RPPS) estimado em R$ 1,25 trilhão, segundo o relatório do Tribunal de Contas da União (TCU) sobre as contas do governo Dilma Rousseff daquele ano, produzido pelo ministro José Jorge, que foi o relator. "Caso essa obrigação fosse contabilizada, o patrimônio líquido da União [diferença entre ativos e passivos]passaria de um valor positivo de R$ 761 bilhões para um valor negativo de R$ 490 bilhões", disse Jorge, em seu parecer.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Brazil's tax revenue hits record high for January

* Brazil posts record tax revenue in January
* Strong result due to industrial output, higher sales

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Brazil Federal Debt Stable In March At BRL1.495 Trillion-Govt

BRASILIA (Dow Jones)--Brazil's total federal debt load remained stable in March at 1.495 trillion Brazilian reals ($857 billion) under the contrasting influence during the period of debt amortization and interest accrual, the government reported Tuesday.

Brazil March Tax Revenue BRL59.42B, Up 6.1% Vs 2009

BRASILIA (Dow Jones)--Reflecting the continuation of a local economic recovery, Brazilian federal tax revenue rose in March to a record level for the month, the federal tax department reported Tuesday.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Brazil posts record tax revenue for a February

Brazil posts record tax revenue for a February

* Economic growth boosts tax collections

* 2010 tax income expected to grow 12 percent

BRASILIA, March 18 (Reuters) - Brazil's tax revenue soared to a record for the month of February on the back of a fast-growing economy and will grow 12 percent this year, the government said on Thursday.

Tax income, adjusted for inflation, jumped to 53.5 billion reais ($29.8 billion) in February, an increase of 13.23 percent over February last year, data from Brazil's national tax authority showed.

In January, tax revenues had totaled 73.6 billion reais.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Arrecadação federal cresce 14% e bate recorde em janeiro

Arrecadação federal cresce 14% e bate recorde em janeiro

A arrecadação de impostos e tributos de janeiro deste ano atingiu a marca dos R$ 73 bilhões e é recorde para o mês. O crescimento real é de 13,64% em comparação a janeiro de 2009. No início do ano passado, a arrecadação federal somou pouco mais de R$ 64 bilhões - corrigida pelo Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) - e foi prejudicada pelas medidas de desoneração adotadas pelo governo para amenizar os efeitos da crise financeira mundial.

De acordo com Raimundo Eloi de Carvalho, coordenador-geral de Estudos, Previsão e Análise da Receita Federal, o crescimento expressivo começou em outubro do ano passado, quando os efeitos da crise mundial foram amenizados.

'Esse recorde decorreu da recuperação dos indicadores macroeconômicos, principalmente do aumento da produção industrial, da quantidade de vendas e da lucratividade de empresas', disse.

A média mensal da perda com desonerações fiscais no ano passado, segundo Carvalho, ficou em cerca de R$ 2,5 bilhões. Raimundo Eloi de Carvalho afirma que em 2010, a situação será diferente.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Brazil's Mantega Paints Positive Picture At Cabinet Meeting - WSJ.com

Brazil's Mantega Paints Positive Picture At Cabinet Meeting

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazil is riding the crest of an economic wave with international investors, local consumers and industrial leaders all optimistic about the country's prospects for 2010 and beyond, Finance Minister Guido Mantega told a cabinet meeting Thursday.

According to his presentation, the Finance Ministry expects Brazil's gross domestic product to grow 5.2% in 2010 and average growth to remain at around 5% for the next five years.

The economy is returning to growth at levels seen before the global economic crisis and those levels will be sustainable in the years to come because inflation is under control, the government is committed to fiscal responsibility, exposure to external risk is low and investment levels are high, Mantega said.

The figures presented by the finance minister were broadly in line with market expectations.

He noted that the economy is being driven by domestic demand, which is seen growing 7.3% in 2010, recovering from an estimated 0.1% drop in 2009.

Meanwhile, investment levels are expected to jump this year. Gross fixed capital formation is seen rising 16.1% in 2010, bouncing back from a decline of 10.0% last year, according to government projections.

Industrial production is seen up 7.1% in 2010 after declining an estimated 5.3% last year.

However, Mantega did touch on one negative facet of the economy, namely the deterioration of the country's current account.

His presentation indicated Brazil's current account deficit would widen to 2.09% of GDP in 2010 from 1.55% in 2009.



-By Alastair Stewart, Dow Jones Newswires; 5511 2847-4520; alastaiir.stewart@dowjones.com"

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

BNDES Sells $1 Billion of Bonds in Overseas Markets

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s state development bank sold $1 billion of 10-year bonds today, marking the beginning of what analysts say will be a push by companies to secure financing ahead of October’s presidential election.

BNDES, as the bank is known, sold the bonds to yield 5.63 percent, or 187.5 basis points more than U.S. Treasuries. That yield spread is down from 300 basis points, or three percentage points, when it issued 10-year notes in its last overseas offering in June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Rio de Janeiro-based BNDES is tapping debt markets before investors grow more cautious about buying the country’s corporate debt during the presidential campaign season, said Eric Ollom, chief strategist for emerging markets at Jefferies Group Inc. in New York.

“Brazil’s got a special case,” Ollom said. “For the six months of the year they have a very open window, but in the third quarter there’s going to be a lot of talk about the election. If I’m a Brazilian entity planning to sell debt, I’d rather do it sooner rather than later.” [more...]

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Brazil Total Federal Debt Up 1.3% To BRL1.49 Tln In November

Brazil Total Federal Debt Up 1.3% To BRL1.49 Tln In November

BRASILIA (Dow Jones)--Under the impact of net debt issuance and interest accrual Brazil's total federal debt load rose by 1.3% to 1.49 trillion Brazilian reals ($837 billion) in November, the government reported Tuesday.

In a joint statement, Brazil's central bank and treasury said the country's domestic federal debt load denominated in reals rose 1.4% from October to BRL1.39 trillion.

The government reported the overall increase in domestic federal debt came alongside BRL7.92 billion in net debt issuance and BRL11.13 billion in interest accrual. -

Meanwhile, Brazil's outstanding federal debt overseas rose 0.4% from October to BRL102 billion.

Regarding the profile of federal domestic debt in November, treasury officials reported floating-rate debt fell to 37.39% of total domestic debt during the month from 37.66% in October.

At the same time, the share of fixed-rate debt rose to 32.47% from 31.23%.

The share of inflation-indexed bonds fell during the month of November to 28.21% of debt from 29.16%, while exchange-linked debt fell to 0.71% of the total from 0.72% the previous month.

Brazil's government has been attempting to lengthen its debt profile and reduce its exposure to interest-rate risk through increased sales of fixed-rate and inflation-indexed debt.

The government reported Tuesday that average maturity of domestic debt fell to 3.37 years in November from 3.42 years in October.

At the same time, however, the government said the volume of domestic debt maturing in the coming 12 months fell in November to 25.87% from 26.55%.

The average cost of debt coming due in the next 12 months fell to 10.86% annually from 11.15% annually.

The November federal debt figures released Tuesday represent a key element of consolidated public-sector debt figures scheduled for release next week.

Brazil posted net consolidated public sector debt in October of BRL1.33 trillion, equivalent to 44.8% of gross domestic product.

-By Gerald Jeffris, Dow Jones Newswires; (5561) 3335-0832, gerald.jeffris@dowjones.com"

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Reservas crescerão menos em 2010

Reservas crescerão menos em 2010

Os analistas de bancos são unânimes em apostar que o Brasil vai continuar a ter sobras de dólares em 2010 e que as reservas internacionais (o caixa do país em moeda estrangeira) vão continuar a crescer. Isso apesar das previsões de um déficit maior em conta corrente (que mede o comércio de bens e serviços) e de mais recursos externos necessários para financiá-lo.

Neste ano, o Banco Central já comprou US$ 25,572 bilhões no mercado interno de câmbio até o dia 4 de dezembro, segundo o último dado disponível. Absorveu parte importante do fluxo positivo de dólares ao país. Para 2010, as estimativas de bancos ouvidos pelo Valor são de que a autoridade monetária vai continuar a adquirir a moeda americana, mas em valores menores do que isso: de US$ 15 bilhões a, no máximo, US$ 20 bilhões.
Foto Destaque

As reservas internacionais, onde são contabilizados esses dólares adquiridos, devem crescer menos do que os US$ 38,3 bilhões até agora neste ano. Devem passar dos US$ 240 bilhões no final de 2009 para US$ 270 bilhões em 2010, com aproximadamente US$ 10 bilhões representando a própria valorização dos ativos nos quais o dinheiro das reservas é aplicado pelo Banco Central."

Cristiane Perini Lucchesi, de São Paulo Valor Online

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Brazil Sells $500 Million of Bonds to Yield 4.75%

Brazil Sells $500 Million of Bonds to Yield 4.75%

Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil sold $500 million of 10-year bonds in the country’s fifth international dollar bond offering this year.

The South American country sold the bonds to yield 4.75 percent, down from 6.13 percent in an initial offering in January and from 5.80 percent in a second sale in May. Today’s yield was 1.14 percentage points more than U.S. Treasuries. The government said in a statement it plans to sell up to $25 million of the securities in Asian markets.

Brazil tapped debt markets as a global economic recovery fuels demand for the securities. Emerging-market debt sales rose 83 percent to a record $597 billion this year, according to Bloomberg data. Brazil is returning to overseas markets after Abu Dhabi’s bailout yesterday of Dubai World boosted demand for higher-yielding assets, said Paul Biszko, emerging-markets strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

“Brazil is using Dubai as an opportunity to issue now versus a potentially even more volatile backdrop next year,” Biszko said.

The yield on Brazil’s 5.875 percent bonds due in 2019 fell to 4.65 percent from 6.44 percent on Jan. 8, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The bond’s price rose to 109.02 cents on the dollar from 95.90 cents during that period.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. arranged today’s bond offering, said a person familiar with the transaction who declined to be identified because he’s not allowed to speak publicly.

To contact the reporters responsible for this story: Francisco Marcelino at mdeoliveira@bloomberg.net; Veronica Espinosa in New York at vespinosa@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 15, 2009 16:50 EST

Brazil Launches $500M 2019 Reopened Bonds At 4.75%

Brazil Launches $500M 2019 Reopened Bonds At 4.75%
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Brazil launched $500 million of 2019 global bonds at 4.75% Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the deal.

The Brazilian Treasury announced Tuesday the reopening of its 2019 global sovereign bond, expanding the current $1.775 billion issue by $500 million. The coupon is 5.875%.

The books on the deal for New York and Europe were closed at about 11 a.m. EST and were said to be oversubscribed.

However, people familiar with the matter said the treasury has no intention of increasing the amount of the offer, even in the event of heavy demand.

The issue may only be increased during the Asian trading session by up to 5% for investors unable to participate during this time zone.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are joint bookrunners on the issue.

Dedicated emerging-market investors weren't keen on participating, even though most are broadly optimistic on Brazil's economy as a whole.

'Brazil as country, we're quite bullish on fundamentals,' said one big fund manager. 'But the market has more than priced that in. So, generally, we're underweight Brazil.' However, they said that the fund will use this reopening to rebalance its portfolio.

Kevin Daly, an emerging market portfolio manager at Aberdeen Investment Managers in London, said: 'Brazil just doesn't yield anything. It's just ridiculously low.'

Interested investors are likely global government bond funds, crossover investors, and those that need to rebalance their portfolios if they have too much cash at the end of the year, he said.

Brazil first issued the 2019 bond in January with a volume of $1.025 billion. The bond came with a coupon rate of 5.875% and a yield of 6.13%. In May, the treasury reopened the 2019 bond, raising an additional $750 million at an annual yield of 5.8%.

Earlier this month, Treasury Secretary Arno Augustin told Dow Jones Newswires that Brazil's government was likely to issue another 10-year overseas bond before the end of the year.

'We are looking to build a better yield curve and improve the quality of our debt management,' Augustin said at that time.

Brazil's is enjoying its investment grade status to access the debt market. In September, Moody's Investors Service raised Brazil's sovereign credit rating to Baa3, an investment-grade rating, more than a year after Standard & Poor's and Fitch Rating elevated Brazil to investment grade.



-By Riva Froymovich, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2217; riva.froymovich@dowjones.com

-By Tom Murphy and Rogerio Jelmayer, Dow Jones Newswires; 55-11-2847-4519; brazil@dowjones.com"

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Brazil Real Needs to Drop 19% for Sustained Growth, Barbosa Says

By Fabiola Moura

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s currency needs to weaken as much as 19 percent for sustainable economic growth, said Nelson Barbosa, the Brazilian Finance Ministry’s top policy adviser.

The real needs to be at 2.1 to 2.12 per U.S. dollar for growth, Barbosa told reporters at an event in New York. The currency traded at 1.7237 per dollar at 11:10 a.m. New York time.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fabiola Moura in New York at fdemoura@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 4, 2009 11:16 EST

Brazil Real Needs to Drop 19% for Sustained Growth, Barbosa Says

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Lula Says Brazil Assessing ‘Permanent Solution’ for Tax Cuts

Lula Says Brazil Assessing ‘Permanent Solution’ for Tax Cuts - Bloomberg.com:

By Iuri Dantas

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said the Finance Ministry and the country’s consumer products manufacturers are discussing a “permanent solution” regarding tax cuts on home appliances.

The government is proceeding with “caution” as declining tax collection this year won’t be allowed to endanger “social programs and investment,” Lula said in his weekly newspaper column published on the presidency’s Web site.

“A more permanent solution is being discussed by the Finance Ministry” and industry representatives, Lula said. “Caution is needed.”

Finance Minister Guido Mantega on Oct. 29 announced that the government had decided to extend tax cuts on energy- efficient appliances for three months and might consider additional measures, without elaborating.

To contact the reporter on this story:’ Iuri Dantas in Brasilia at idantas@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 3, 2009 09:54 EST"

Friday, October 30, 2009

Brazil Sept. Budget Deficit Widens to Nine-Month High (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

Brazil Sept. Budget Deficit Widens to Nine-Month High (Update3) - Bloomberg.com:
By Andre Soliani and Joshua Goodman

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s budget deficit widened more than expected in September to a nine-month high as the government carried out its stimulus plan amid falling revenue.

The deficit, including the federal government, local governments and state companies, widened to 22.4 billion ($13 billion) from 8.16 billion reais in August, the central bank said in a report distributed today in Brasilia. Analysts expected a gap of 12 billion reais, according to the median of three forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. It was the widest gap for the month of September since the series started in 2001." [more...]

Friday, October 23, 2009

IMF Official: Brazil Should Phase Out Fiscal Stimulus - WSJ.com

IMF Official: Brazil Should Phase Out Fiscal Stimulus - WSJ.com: "
OCTOBER 23, 2009, 3:20 P.M. ET

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)-- The best way for Brazil to protect its currency from additional, and unwanted, appreciation is to phase out fiscal stimulus measures, a top International Monetary Fund official said Friday.

'Given that Brazil has already emerged from the global crisis and is growing strongly, it is now time to remove fiscal stimulus,' IMF Western Hemisphere Director Nicolas Eyzaguirre told reporters. 'If not, Brazil will face inflation and rising interest rates.'

Higher interest rates, in turn, could bring in more speculative investment from overseas, leading to persistent appreciation of the Brazilian real.

The Brazilian real has gained 35% against the U.S. dollar so far this year. The strong real has hurt exporters. It has also led to a deterioration of trade and current account balances.

Earlier Friday, the Brazilian Central Bank released September current account figures, showing a monthly deficit of $2.31 billion, up sharply from $822 million in August. Brazil's September trade surplus dwindled to $1.33 billion from $3.1 billion the previous month.

Earlier this week, the Brazilian government slapped a 2% tax on incoming foreign investments in the areas of fixed-income and stocks. The frank purpose of the measure was to reduce foreign investment inflows to halt the appreciation of the real.

Eyzaguirre said, 'We understand perfectly how a country would wish to protect itself in a situation like this. The obvious thing to do is to open your umbrella when it's raining dollars.'

But Eyzaguirre said the increased taxation alone might not be enough to halt the real's appreciation. For that reason, he recommended removal of fiscal stimulus measures.

'Brazil has created a middle class, which has stepped up consumption to the point where fiscal stimulus is no longer necessary and can be phased out,' Eyzaguirre said.

-By Tom Murphy, Dow Jones Newswires; 55-11-2847-4519; brazil@dowjones.com"

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Brazil Officials Seek Credit Rating On Rio To Attract Funds - WSJ.com

Brazil Officials Seek Credit Rating On Rio To Attract Funds - WSJ.com

By Kejal Vyas
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


MIAMI (Dow Jones)--Brazilian officials are in talks with ratings agencies to assign ratings to the city of Rio de Janeiro as part of a broader effort to attract more investors, the state finance secretary told Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday.

'Now is the right time,' said Joaquim Levy, adding that the move would be 'a signaling device' for investors. He said a rating on the city could come by next year.

While Brazil's sovereign credit is designated as investment grade at all the major ratings agencies, neither Standard & Poor's nor Fitch Ratings rates the city of Rio de Janeiro. Moody's Investors Service rates it Ba2, two notches below investment grade.

A spokesperson at S&P, which stopped rating Rio de Janeiro in 2002, said the firm doesn't comment on pending discussions.

Levy spoke on the sidelines of a Latin America hedge fund conference in Miami as the government looks to bring in overseas investors to help fund its massive overhaul of Rio de Janeiro in time for the 2016 Olympics.

Around $14 billion is expected to be needed just for revamping the city's infrastructure. The Brazilian government is expecting around 30% of funding for the Olympic games to come from private investors.

The rating could help mitigate risk premiums the state would have to pay if it were to borrow funds, though 'we're not planning to be aggressive in the markets,' Levy said.

Foreign investors' interest in Brazilian assets has soared this year as the country's economy, Latin America's largest, was able to avoid much of the global crisis thanks to its sound financial markets and increasing reliance on domestic consumption.

But many were alarmed by the government action Monday to install a tax on some incoming foreign investment, in a bid to curb the steep appreciation of the Brazilian real, which could weigh on its export industries.

'Chances are if you're an investor, you're not going to be happy about this,' Levy admitted, but said the measure will 'certainly be temporary.'

'It's not something we like to do but reality is not in your favor...we had to respond to the imbalance in the markets,' he added.

At the conference on Tuesday, Paulo Leme, Goldman Sachs' director of emerging markets, blasted the move to introduce levies, calling it a 'huge policy mistake that's not going to help at all.'

He added that it's a reminder that there are 'more changes to come that [investors] may not be too happy about' and that market participants should be tracking next year's presidential election closely because expecting continuity in accommodative economic policies could be 'naive.'



-By Kejal Vyas, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2185; kejal.vyas@dowjones.com"

Monday, October 19, 2009

Brazil’s ‘Moment’ at Risk as Real Gains, Freitas Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

By Camila Fontana

Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s real, the best-performing major currency this year, may rally another 6 percent against the dollar before investment flows to the country start to ebb, former central bank director Carlos Eduardo de Freitas said.

“Brazil is now at a magical moment but also has weaknesses and is subject to a sudden outflow of capital,” said Freitas, who headed the central bank’s economic department from 1991 to 1993, in a telephone interview from Brasilia. “That is why the central bank needs to be prepared and keeps increasing international reserves. Economies do not adjust smoothly.”

The real fell 0.3 percent to 1.7144 per dollar at 8:26 a.m. New York time. Last week the Brazilian currency completed a seventh straight week of gains, the best run since 2004, helped by the economy’s recovery from a recession, increased demand for the nation’s stocks and a credit rating upgrade by Moody’s Investors Service. The real may rise to 1.6 per dollar before falling, Freitas said.

Its gain this year is the best for the world’s 16 most- traded currencies. The real has rallied 35 percent while the Bovespa stock index is up 76 percent.

The currency is gaining even as the central bank buys dollars daily in a bid to stem the advance. Brazilian central bank President Henrique Meirelles said in an interview last week that emerging-market currencies that have been appreciating as economies recover from a global recession may become volatile as markets overprice assets.

International Reserves

Brazil’s international reserves have risen by $25.3 billion this year to $232.1 billion on Oct. 14, according to data compiled by the central bank.

Analysts estimate the real will end the year at 1.75, according to the median of 20 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.

Brazilian economists raised their forecast for the real by the end of 2009 for the second consecutive week to 1.7 from 1.76, according to a weekly central bank survey of about 100 analysts published today.

The government is unlikely to adopt measures to curb the rally, Rodrigo Azevedo, who served as the central bank’s monetary policy director between 2004 and 2007 and now helps manage $1.8 billion at JGP SA, said in an interview from Sao Paulo on Oct. 16. “There is very little Brazil can do,” he said.

The same day, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva denied a report published in O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper that said the government was planning to tax foreign inflows.

“Fortunately our president seems to be against miraculous ideas”, said Freitas, who runs a consulting firm, OF Consultoria Economica.

Central banks need to “alert investors and markets of the risks of exaggeration in the formation of prices, which can lead to future corrections and create unnecessary volatility,” Meirelles said in the interview in New York.

To contact the reporter on this story: Camila Fontana Correa in Sao Paulo at cfontana@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: October 19, 2009 08:48 EDT"

Friday, October 16, 2009

UPDATE: Brazil Sovereign Wealth Fund Idea More A Pipe Dream - WSJ.com

UPDATE: Brazil Sovereign Wealth Fund Idea More A Pipe Dream - WSJ.com: "*
OCTOBER 16, 2009, 5:06 P.M. ET

By Riva Froymovich
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Despite the enormous influx of capital going into Brazil, a sovereign wealth fund in the near term is little more than a pipe dream.

According to recent reports, Brazil's government is planning to set up a new sovereign wealth fund to invest dollars that the central bank buys on the spot market to limit the sharp appreciation of the local real currency against the dollar.

But Brazil needs all the money it can get to pay for its budget deficit and public debt. Second, much of the capital in flows boosting the real are private and do not go into the government coffers.

Moreover, if Brazil takes anything away from the historic financial crisis the world is just beginning to get over, it is that the country needs to build and preserve domestic reserves to shield it from another bubble. Given the growth in Brazilian assets over the last year, a bubble may not be far off. Brazilian stocks hit a 16-month high Thursday and the real has gained 37% against the U.S. dollar this year.

A sovereign wealth fund is a higher-risk investment portfolio, wielded by monetary authorities or central banks to diversify surplus reserves outside of the economy and potentially make a profit.

Asked again this week about plans for such a fund, a Finance ministry spokeswoman said Friday, 'We have had a lot of requests for comment on this, but the Finance Ministry has no comment on the subject.'

Brazil's reserves have swelled in recent months, up to $231 billion, on the central bank's actions - a testament to recovering risk appetite and Brazil's appeal as a growing and relatively stable economy.

But, economists say this is deceiving.

'There is nothing about wealth in that fund because Brazil does not have a fiscal surplus to capitalize on,' said Alberto M. Ramos, a senior Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs in New York.

Brazil's government is spending well beyond its means. The country's 12-month public sector primary budget surplus declined in August to 1.59% of gross domestic product, well below the year-end target of 2.5%. Primary figures don't include service costs on debt. With such costs included, Brazil posted an August nominal deficit equal to 3.53% of GDP.

'The only way to capitalize is to issue more debt. Then it would be a sovereign debt fund rather than wealth, because there is no wealth being created,' said Ramos.

Brazil is a net borrower.

Foreign debt rose in August to $204.1 billion from $195.9 billion in July. Dividend and profit remittances by multinationals increased to $1.9 billion from July's $1.75 billion. Meanwhile, the central bank predicted a rising current account deficit in 2010 to $29 billion from an estimated $18 billion this year.

Noted Latin American country risk specialist Armen Kouyoumdjian asked: 'How can you say I am putting money aside when you are not even covering your expenses?' He added that Brazil has the largest stimulus program in Latin America, which will increase its debt even more.

Brazil's government may be floating the idea of a wealth fund for the prestige it carries. This may also be the government's way to tell the central bank to intervene more, according to Affonso Pastore, former Brazil Central Bank President and adviser for GlobalSource Partners. But, analysts say the country must reinvest in itself to fund development, rather than try to turn profits with money abroad.

Brazil already tried to launch an outside-looking sovereign wealth fund last year, but had to change plans when the financial crisis struck. Monetary authorities realized they needed to use those dollar reserves for their originally intended purpose, selling dollars in order to stabilize the market.

'The downturn has led to a reconsideration of what really represents too much reserves from a pure currency standpoint,' said Alan Ruskin, head of global strategy at RBS.

He said Brazil's central bank will probably want to build reserves even more before investing them.

The central bank is the other hurdle in the government's supposed plans. It is in the market daily trying to prevent further appreciation of the real, and another authority affecting the foreign exchange market could be counterproductive.



-By Riva Froymovich, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2217; riva.froymovich@dowjones.com